feat(npu): add advisory dry-run comparison harness

Add npu_advisory_decision_v1 schema, synthetic fixture set, comparison harness, docs, and focused tests for advisory-only NPU evaluation.
2026-06-06 15:30:31 -07:00
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+# NPU advisory decision schema and dry-run evaluation metrics
+
+This document defines the compact `npu_advisory_decision_v1` record and the
+minimum dry-run metrics required before any OpenVINO/NPU advisory lane is
+considered for promotion. The schema is advisory-only: it creates audit evidence
+and comparison data, not live authority.
+
+Scope and safety defaults:
+
+- Local audit records only; no outbound sends, service restarts, tool execution,
+  memory writes, routing changes, vector-store mutation, or broad private scans.
+- Synthetic or explicitly non-private fixtures only for dry-run evaluation.
+- Raw prompts, transcripts, documents, images, headers, secrets, and full upstream
+  JSON payloads are not persisted by default.
+- NPU output is evidence for a gate. It must never directly perform or trigger
+  an action.
+
+## `npu_advisory_decision_v1`
+
+Required top-level fields:
+
+| Field | Type | Required | Notes |
+| --- | --- | ---: | --- |
+| `schema_version` | string | yes | Always `npu_advisory_decision_v1`. |
+| `decision_id` | string | yes | Locally generated UUID/ULID. No payload-derived PII. |
+| `timestamp` | string | yes | RFC3339/ISO-8601 UTC timestamp. |
+| `source` | object | yes | Where the dry-run input came from. |
+| `service` | object | yes | Advisory lane/service that produced the recommendation. |
+| `input_class` | string | yes | Normalized class such as `context_gate`, `cron_n8n_event`, `batch_doc_triage`, `voice_audio`, `kanban_hygiene`, or `advisory_gateway_envelope`. |
+| `recommendation` | object | yes | NPU/advisory recommendation and rationale metadata. |
+| `confidence` | object | yes | Score, bucket, and calibration notes. |
+| `authority_flags` | object | yes | Explicit booleans for authority boundaries; all default false. |
+| `allowed_actions` | array[string] | yes | Actions a downstream gate may consider. Defaults to advisory-only actions. |
+| `actual_action` | object | yes | What really happened. In this gate it should always be no-op/record-only. |
+| `human_or_atlas_decision` | object | yes | Comparison target from fixture expected label, human label, or Atlas decision. |
+| `outcome` | object | yes | Agreement/error bucket used by the eval harness. |
+| `npu_proof` | object | yes | Evidence that a real NPU-backed inference ran, where available. |
+| `latency` | object | yes | Request latency and optional queue/processing timings. |
+| `fallback` | object | yes | Whether CPU/offline/health-only fallback happened and why. |
+| `privacy` | object | yes | What was redacted/hashed and what retention class applies. |
+| `notes` | array[string] | no | Short non-private audit notes. |
+
+### Field details
+
+`source`:
+
+- `kind`: `fixture`, `manual_label`, `atlas_shadow`, `human_review`, or
+  `service_health_probe`.
+- `fixture_id`: stable fixture identifier when applicable.
+- `fixture_set`: fixture collection name/version.
+- `artifact_ref`: optional local path or opaque run id; do not include raw
+  private content.
+- `content_hash`: optional SHA-256 over sanitized fixture content.
+- `privacy_class`: `synthetic`, `public`, `non_private`, `redacted`, or
+  `private_disallowed`.
+
+`service`:
+
+- `name`: e.g. `openvino_context_gate`, `cron_n8n_advisory`,
+  `npu_batch_triage`, `npu_voice_audio_pipeline`, `kanban_hygiene_advisory`,
+  `openvino_advisory_gateway`.
+- `endpoint`: local endpoint label or script name; avoid sensitive URL params.
+- `mode`: `dry_run`, `shadow`, `health_only`, or `offline_fixture`.
+- `model`: optional model/backend label, if safe to log.
+
+`recommendation`:
+
+- `label`: normalized recommendation, e.g. `suppress`, `log`, `summarize`,
+  `escalate`, `retrieve_more_context`, `skip_private_root`, `needs_human`,
+  `no_action`, or `unknown`.
+- `severity`: `none`, `info`, `low`, `medium`, `high`, or `critical`.
+- `reasons`: short non-private reason codes, not raw excerpts.
+- `evidence_refs`: bounded references to sanitized fixture fields or artifact ids.
+- `raw_output_ref`: optional local artifact pointer; default null.
+
+`confidence`:
+
+- `score`: float from 0.0 to 1.0 when available, otherwise null.
+- `bucket`: one of `very_low`, `low`, `medium`, `high`, `very_high`, or
+  `unknown`.
+- `bucket_rule`: the threshold rule used by the harness.
+- `calibrated`: boolean; false until enough labeled dry-run data exists.
+
+Recommended confidence buckets:
+
+| Bucket | Score range | Gate behavior |
+| --- | --- | --- |
+| `very_low` | `< 0.40` | Treat as uncertain; never escalate automatically. |
+| `low` | `0.40-0.59` | Advisory note only; human/Atlas decides. |
+| `medium` | `0.60-0.79` | Eligible for comparison metrics; no live action. |
+| `high` | `0.80-0.94` | Strong advisory evidence; still gated. |
+| `very_high` | `>= 0.95` | Promotion candidate only after repeated eval success. |
+| `unknown` | null/missing | Count separately; do not coerce to zero. |
+
+`authority_flags`:
+
+All flags default to false and must remain false for this gate.
+
+- `can_route_atlas`
+- `can_write_memory`
+- `can_execute_tools`
+- `can_restart_services`
+- `can_send_outbound`
+- `can_scan_private_roots`
+- `can_mutate_vector_store`
+- `can_post_advisory_event`
+- `can_change_gateway_config`
+- `requires_human_approval`
+- `advisory_only`
+
+For this gate, `advisory_only=true` and `requires_human_approval=true` for any
+recommendation that could eventually affect live behavior.
+
+`allowed_actions`:
+
+Allowed by default:
+
+- `record_metric`
+- `compare_with_expected_label`
+- `include_in_digest`
+- `open_review_ticket_candidate`
+- `recommend_human_review`
+
+Disallowed unless a later approval explicitly changes scope:
+
+- `route_atlas`
+- `write_memory`
+- `execute_tool`
+- `restart_service`
+- `send_message`
+- `scan_private_root`
+- `mutate_vector_store`
+- `post_gateway_event`
+
+`actual_action`:
+
+- `kind`: should be `none`, `recorded_metric`, or `dry_run_reported`.
+- `performed`: boolean; false for live side effects in this gate.
+- `performed_by`: `harness`, `human`, `atlas`, or null.
+- `side_effects`: array; should be empty except local report/artifact writes.
+
+`human_or_atlas_decision`:
+
+- `source`: `fixture_expected`, `human_label`, `atlas_shadow`, or `missing`.
+- `label`: normalized decision label using the same label set as
+  `recommendation.label` when possible.
+- `severity`: normalized severity when applicable.
+- `confidence`: optional Atlas/human confidence if available.
+- `decision_ref`: optional review id, fixture id, or session/run id.
+- `timestamp`: optional timestamp for the comparison decision.
+
+`outcome`:
+
+- `comparison`: `agree`, `disagree`, `uncertain`, `missing_reference`, or
+  `not_applicable`.
+- `error_type`: null or one of `false_positive`, `false_negative`,
+  `severity_overcall`, `severity_undercall`, `unsafe_authority`,
+  `privacy_violation`, `fallback_unexpected`, `latency_slo_miss`,
+  `npu_proof_missing`.
+- `human_review_required`: boolean.
+- `promotion_blocker`: boolean.
+
+`npu_proof`:
+
+- `proof_mode`: `sysfs_busy_delta`, `service_reported_delta`, `health_only`,
+  `offline_fixture`, or `unavailable`.
+- `busy_delta_us`: integer or null.
+- `service_reported_delta_us`: integer or null.
+- `inference_ran`: boolean.
+- `proof_ok`: boolean or null. Null means not measurable, not false.
+- `counter_path`: usually `/sys/class/accel/accel0/device/npu_busy_time_us`, if
+  logged safely.
+
+`latency`:
+
+- `total_ms`: end-to-end harness timing.
+- `service_ms`: service-reported processing time when available.
+- `queue_ms`: optional queue time.
+- `timeout`: boolean.
+
+`fallback`:
+
+- `occurred`: boolean.
+- `kind`: null, `cpu`, `offline`, `health_only`, `service_unavailable`,
+  `skipped_cold_load`, `private_root_blocked`, or `proof_unavailable`.
+- `reason`: short reason code.
+- `expected`: boolean. Expected fallbacks are counted but do not fail promotion
+  unless their rate exceeds the threshold for that lane.
+
+`privacy`:
+
+- `payload_logged`: must default false.
+- `redaction`: `none_needed`, `hash_only`, `paths_only`, `metadata_only`, or
+  `blocked_private`.
+- `retention`: `ephemeral`, `local_audit`, or `review_artifact`.
+- `contains_private_payload`: must be false for committed fixtures.
+
+## Minimal JSON shape
+
+```json
+{
+  "schema_version": "npu_advisory_decision_v1",
+  "decision_id": "01J00000000000000000000000",
+  "timestamp": "2026-06-06T00:00:00Z",
+  "source": {
+    "kind": "fixture",
+    "fixture_id": "cron_duplicate_success_001",
+    "fixture_set": "npu_advisory_eval_v1",
+    "artifact_ref": null,
+    "content_hash": "sha256:example",
+    "privacy_class": "synthetic"
+  },
+  "service": {
+    "name": "cron_n8n_advisory",
+    "endpoint": "openvino-advisory-gateway/examples/cron-advisory-dry-run.sh",
+    "mode": "dry_run",
+    "model": "openvino-local"
+  },
+  "input_class": "cron_n8n_event",
+  "recommendation": {
+    "label": "suppress",
+    "severity": "info",
+    "reasons": ["duplicate_success", "no_action_required"],
+    "evidence_refs": ["fixture:event_kind", "fixture:status"],
+    "raw_output_ref": null
+  },
+  "confidence": {
+    "score": 0.91,
+    "bucket": "high",
+    "bucket_rule": "v1_default",
+    "calibrated": false
+  },
+  "authority_flags": {
+    "can_route_atlas": false,
+    "can_write_memory": false,
+    "can_execute_tools": false,
+    "can_restart_services": false,
+    "can_send_outbound": false,
+    "can_scan_private_roots": false,
+    "can_mutate_vector_store": false,
+    "can_post_advisory_event": false,
+    "can_change_gateway_config": false,
+    "requires_human_approval": true,
+    "advisory_only": true
+  },
+  "allowed_actions": [
+    "record_metric",
+    "compare_with_expected_label",
+    "include_in_digest"
+  ],
+  "actual_action": {
+    "kind": "dry_run_reported",
+    "performed": false,
+    "performed_by": "harness",
+    "side_effects": []
+  },
+  "human_or_atlas_decision": {
+    "source": "fixture_expected",
+    "label": "suppress",
+    "severity": "info",
+    "confidence": null,
+    "decision_ref": "cron_duplicate_success_001",
+    "timestamp": null
+  },
+  "outcome": {
+    "comparison": "agree",
+    "error_type": null,
+    "human_review_required": false,
+    "promotion_blocker": false
+  },
+  "npu_proof": {
+    "proof_mode": "sysfs_busy_delta",
+    "busy_delta_us": 1200,
+    "service_reported_delta_us": 1180,
+    "inference_ran": true,
+    "proof_ok": true,
+    "counter_path": "/sys/class/accel/accel0/device/npu_busy_time_us"
+  },
+  "latency": {
+    "total_ms": 42.5,
+    "service_ms": 39.1,
+    "queue_ms": null,
+    "timeout": false
+  },
+  "fallback": {
+    "occurred": false,
+    "kind": null,
+    "reason": null,
+    "expected": false
+  },
+  "privacy": {
+    "payload_logged": false,
+    "redaction": "metadata_only",
+    "retention": "local_audit",
+    "contains_private_payload": false
+  },
+  "notes": []
+}
+```
+
+## Dry-run comparison strategy
+
+Each fixture or shadow input should produce one `npu_advisory_decision_v1`
+record. The harness compares `recommendation` to `human_or_atlas_decision` in
+this order:
+
+1. Use `fixture_expected` labels for synthetic/non-private regression fixtures.
+2. Use explicit `human_label` for reviewed samples.
+3. Use `atlas_shadow` only as a comparison signal, not ground truth, when a human
+   label is unavailable.
+4. Mark `missing_reference` rather than inventing a target decision.
+
+Comparison categories:
+
+- `agree`: normalized label and severity are compatible.
+- `disagree`: label conflicts with the reference decision.
+- `uncertain`: NPU bucket is `very_low`, `low`, or `unknown`, or the service
+  returned a deliberate `needs_human`/`unknown` label.
+- `false_positive`: NPU recommended escalation/action but reference says
+  suppress/no-op.
+- `false_negative`: NPU recommended suppress/no-op but reference says escalate or
+  action-needed.
+- `severity_overcall` / `severity_undercall`: label matches but severity differs
+  by more than one level.
+
+The summary should be grouped by lane (`input_class` and `service.name`) and by
+confidence bucket. Unknown metrics remain null/`n/a`; do not coerce missing data
+to zero.
+
+## Metrics
+
+Minimum per-run metrics:
+
+- `total_records`
+- `records_by_input_class`
+- `records_by_service`
+- `confidence_bucket_counts`
+- `recommendation_counts`
+- `authority_flag_violation_count`
+- `privacy_violation_count`
+- `actual_side_effect_count`
+- `agree_count`, `disagree_count`, `uncertain_count`, `missing_reference_count`
+- `false_positive_count`, `false_negative_count`
+- `severity_overcall_count`, `severity_undercall_count`
+- `fallback_count` and `fallback_counts_by_kind`
+- `expected_fallback_count` vs `unexpected_fallback_count`
+- `npu_proof_ok_count`, `npu_proof_missing_count`, `npu_proof_not_applicable_count`
+- p50/p95 `latency.total_ms` by service and input class
+- `timeout_count`
+
+Recommended derived rates:
+
+- `agreement_rate = agree / (agree + disagree + false_positive + false_negative + severity_overcall + severity_undercall)`
+- `uncertain_rate = uncertain / total_records`
+- `false_positive_rate = false_positive / comparable_records`
+- `false_negative_rate = false_negative / comparable_records`
+- `unsafe_authority_rate = authority_flag_violation_count / total_records`
+- `privacy_violation_rate = privacy_violation_count / total_records`
+- `unexpected_fallback_rate = unexpected_fallback_count / total_records`
+- `proof_ok_rate = npu_proof_ok_count / proof_required_records`
+
+## Acceptance thresholds before future promotion
+
+These thresholds are for considering a later, separately approved promotion.
+They do not grant authority by themselves.
+
+Global blockers for every lane:
+
+- `authority_flag_violation_count == 0`.
+- `actual_side_effect_count == 0` for dry-run harness execution.
+- `privacy_violation_count == 0` and no committed private fixtures/secrets.
+- No raw private payloads in logs, reports, artifacts, or test fixtures.
+- No service bind, route, memory, tool, send, restart, or vector-store mutation
+  introduced by the eval code.
+
+Minimum data quality before promotion discussion:
+
+- At least 30 comparable synthetic/non-private records per lane, or all available
+  lane fixtures if the lane is explicitly scoped smaller.
+- Every advisory lane has at least one normal case, one low-confidence case, one
+  false-alarm/noise case, and one action-needed/escalation case.
+- `missing_reference_count == 0` for promotion-candidate fixture sets.
+- Confidence bucket distribution is reported and stable across at least three
+  dry-run executions.
+
+Suggested metric thresholds:
+
+| Metric | Threshold for promotion discussion |
+| --- | ---: |
+| Agreement rate | `>= 0.95` overall and `>= 0.90` per lane |
+| False positive rate | `<= 0.03` overall and no repeated high-severity false positives |
+| False negative rate | `<= 0.01` for action-needed/escalation cases |
+| Uncertain rate | `<= 0.15` overall, unless lane is intentionally conservative |
+| Unexpected fallback rate | `<= 0.02` and every fallback has a reason code |
+| NPU proof OK rate | `>= 0.98` for proof-required lanes |
+| p95 latency | Within the lane-specific SLO documented by the implementation task |
+| Authority/privacy violations | exactly `0` |
+
+Promotion remains lane-specific. A passing context-gate eval does not promote
+cron/n8n, voice/audio, batch triage, Kanban hygiene, or advisory gateway lanes.
+Each lane needs its own human-approved scope, rollback plan, and review.
+
+## Output formats
+
+The dry-run harness should emit:
+
+1. JSONL decisions: one `npu_advisory_decision_v1` object per line.
+2. Compact JSON summary: aggregate counts/rates for dashboards and follow-up
+   digest scripts.
+3. Compact Markdown/text summary: suitable for terminal, Telegram, or Discord.
+
+The Markdown/text summary should include:
+
+- run id, fixture set, generated-at timestamp;
+- records by lane/service;
+- agreement/uncertain/false-positive/false-negative counts;
+- confidence bucket distribution;
+- fallback counts;
+- NPU proof counts;
+- authority/privacy violation counts;
+- promotion blockers and caveats.
+
+## Fixture expectations
+
+Use synthetic/non-private fixtures only. Required lanes:
+
+- `context_gate`: retrieve/no-retrieve decisions with missing, conflicting, and
+  sufficient context cases.
+- `cron_n8n_event`: duplicate success, stale warning, urgent false alarm, and
+  action-needed failure.
+- `batch_doc_triage`: private-root blocked, approved synthetic sample, noisy OCR,
+  and needs-human cases.
+- `voice_audio`: bounded generated audio, low-confidence transcript, harmless
+  background noise, and action-needed command-like utterance that must not
+  execute.
+- `kanban_hygiene`: no-op healthy card, stale/card-needs-review, false alarm, and
+  action-needed label.
+- `advisory_gateway_envelope`: valid classify/generate/triage envelope examples
+  plus malformed/unsafe authority-request examples.
+
+Any fixture that resembles private content should be replaced with a synthetic
+fixture or reduced to metadata/hash-only form before committing.
+
+## Review checklist
+
+Before implementation or docs depending on this spec are accepted, verify:
+
+- `schema_version` is present and all authority flags default closed.
+- Dry-run execution produces no live side effects beyond local report/artifact
+  writes.
+- Unknown/missing metrics are represented as null/`n/a`, not fake zero.
+- Raw payloads and private paths are not persisted by default.
+- Summary metrics include confidence buckets, fallback counts, NPU proof, and
+  authority/privacy violations.
+- Promotion language says "candidate" or "discussion" only; no automatic live
+  authority is granted by a passing eval.
@@ -0,0 +1,55 @@
+# NPU advisory dry-run comparison harness
+
+This harness compares advisory-only NPU lane recommendations against synthetic/non-private expected decisions. It is an observability gate only: it does not route, send, write memory, execute tools, restart services, broaden private scans, restart gateways, or mutate vector stores.
+
+For the operator runbook and promotion criteria, see `docs/npu-advisory-observability-runbook.md`. Treat this file as the compact command reference; the runbook is the source for how to interpret metrics and decide whether a lane is promotable later.
+
+## Run
+
+From `/home/will/lab/swarm`:
+
+```bash
+python scripts/npu-advisory-dry-run-comparison.py --format json
+python scripts/npu-advisory-dry-run-comparison.py --format json --include-decisions
+python scripts/npu-advisory-dry-run-comparison.py --format markdown
+```
+
+Strict checks for CI/review:
+
+```bash
+python scripts/npu-advisory-dry-run-comparison.py --fail-on-mismatch
+python scripts/npu-advisory-dry-run-comparison.py --fail-on-authority-violation
+```
+
+`--fail-on-authority-violation` is expected to fail with the committed fixture set because one synthetic gateway fixture intentionally proves that `may_* = true` is caught and summarized.
+
+## Fixture coverage
+
+Fixtures live at `fixtures/npu_advisory_dry_run/fixtures.json` and cover:
+
+- context gate;
+- cron/n8n advisory events;
+- batch document/audio triage shape;
+- voice/audio advisory gate;
+- Kanban hygiene advisory;
+- advisory gateway envelopes.
+
+All fixture payloads are synthetic and omit raw private content. Lane adapters use deterministic local rules or imported pure functions; they do not call live advisory services.
+
+## Output shape
+
+JSON output uses `npu_advisory_dry_run_summary_v1` and includes totals, per-lane counts, confidence buckets, recommendation counts, authority violations, expected-outcome mismatches, and optionally per-fixture `npu_advisory_decision_v1` records.
+
+Each decision record includes timestamp, source, service, lane, input class, recommendation, expected recommendation, confidence/bucket, authority flags, allowed actions, actual action (`none_dry_run`), human/Atlas comparison, outcome, NPU proof, latency, fallback reason, and compact notes.
+
+## Promotion gate
+
+Before any future advisory lane receives authority, a separate approval should require at minimum:
+
+- no expected-outcome mismatches for that lane's representative fixture set;
+- no false negatives on action-needed events;
+- intentionally reviewed false positives;
+- zero authority-safe flag violations except known negative-control fixtures;
+- documented rollback and a narrow, explicit authority scope.
+
+Passing this harness never grants live authority by itself. Advisory outputs flow into `npu_advisory_decision_v1` records, summary metrics, and a human/Atlas review gate. Any later promotion must be lane-specific, explicitly approved, and reversible.